Publish date: 2023-12-25

With Jonathan Taylor out, Zack Moss steps back in, and we have some managers needing the Week 13 fantasy football rankings more than anyone thought. With six teams on a bye, the game previews and sleepers are even more vital to make sure you win and get into the fantasy playoffs.

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WEEK 13 FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEWS

** BYES: BAL, BUF, CHI, LV, MIN, NYG **

NOTE: ALL of the stats are SINCE WEEK 7 — unless noted. That’s because it’s good to look at recent performance versus year-long with defenses, etc., as in-season adjustments can change things.

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Acronyms

• RBTouch% — RB touch percentage — percent of team total RB touches that player had
• TmTGT% — Team target percentage — percent of team total targets going to that player
• TGT% — Percentage of the time a player is targeted when running routes
• G2G and GL — Goal-to-Go (inside the 10-yard line) and Goal-Line (inside the 5-yard line)
• TmAirYD% — Team Air Yard percentage — percent of team total air yards going to that player
• CPOE — Completion percentage over expectation — allowed completion percentage adjusting for difficulty of the pass (depth, coverage, etc.)
• YPRR — Yards per Route Run — rather valuable indicator
• APA — Adjust Points Allowed (tables link above)

Seahawks at Cowboys, TNF

• If Kenneth Walker is back, he’s a risky RB2, and Zach Charbonnet is an RB3 — James Conner is the only running back to top 69 rushing yards or 85 total yards against the Cowboys.
• The Cowboys have the highest EPA/Play, EPA per Dropback, Points Margin (+108) and TD/Drive% (43.1), plus the second-highest YD/Play (6.6 — 49ers at 6.9).
• DK Metcalf averages 21.0 more YPR (37.3 to 16.3) when up by 7+ versus down by 7 or more — Tyler Lockett is more game script neutral at 3.0.

Colts at Titans, 1 p.m.

• Zack Moss is a Top 15 option until Jonathan Taylor returns. In the three games with Moss active and before Taylor returned — plus two more after Taylor was active — Moss finished RB 10, 4, 21, 2, 9, respectively — and after that he still finished 30, 14, 49, 70, 31.
• In games with a rushing touchdown, Derrick Henry averages 22.0 FPPG compared to 7.4 FPPG in games without a rushing TD. The Colts have given up 11 RB rushing TDs (fifth most).
• Josh Downs has been targeted on 28.1% of his routes, 10th highest (min 20 targets) — Michael Pittman is sixth at 30.2%.

Chargers at Patriots, 1 p.m.

• Demario Douglas has 23.5 TmTGT% (21st) and 27.0 TGT% (14th) — min. 20 targets.
• If Douglas plays, he’s a near must-start in a slim week and great matchup (one that helped Jordan Love get back on track in Week 11). If not, DeVante Parker is a risk/reward WR4.
• If Joshua Palmer returns, he’s in play as WR3 — unless limited all week. Palmer is the best second option (when healthy), which would push Jalen Guyton into Hail Mary range. If no Palmer, Guyton is a WR4 with upside for more.
• If you’re desperate for a tight end, Hunter Henry is a decent gamble with the Chargers having the highest TE APA (14.4).

Lions at Saints, 1 p.m.

• If Chris Olave plays, you start him. If he’s out and Rashid Shaheed plays (unlikely), Shaheed would be a strong WR3. If both are out, A.T. Perry is a risk/reward WR3/4.
• David Montgomery is averaging 4.3 yards after contact, behind only Keaton Mitchell (7.5) and Jaylen Warren (5.0) — Jahmyr Gibbs is 21st at 3.0. Montgomery and Gibbs are tied for first in yards before contact at 2.5.
• Even with a bye, Alvin Kamara leads all running backs in targets (36), receptions (31) and receiving yards (269) — Rachaad White is sixth (29), second (27) and second (266).

Falcons at Jets, 1 p.m.

• Not surprisingly, the Jets have the lowest WR APA (19.8 — CLE is second at 23.6).
• Some of Breece Hall’s biggest runs have come while down by a touchdown or more, as he’s averaging 3.0 more YPC when down 7 or more versus up 7+ (also, the Jets haven’t been up 7+ too frequently).
• As seen last week, the Falcons are run-happy when close or leading, and Bijan Robinson averages 1.7 more YPC when up 7+ (eighth biggest gap).
• Garrett Wilson has the fourth-highest YPR gap when up by 7+ versus down 7 or more at 21.8.

Cardinals at Steelers, 1 p.m.

• If Michael Wilson finally returns, it’s a tough matchup, but he’s worthy of a WR4 gamble. If he’s out through the bye, Greg Dortch takes his spot with a bit more risk.
• It shouldn’t come as a surprise, but many quarterbacks average more yards per dropback when down 7 or more. Still, Kyler Murray is fourth most at 5.1 more YPD, while Kenny Pickett is the opposite, averaging 3.7 more YPD when up 7+ than down 7 or more (third-largest gap behind Zach Wilson and Desmond Ridder).
• Jaylen Warren has the most rushes of 10+ yards (14) and the second-highest percentage of those runs (23.7% — Keaton Mitchell first at 24.1%). Najee Harris has nine but it’s just 11.3% of his runs (22nd).

Dolphins at Commanders, 1 p.m.

• The Dolphins have the eighth-highest point differential in the first half (+30) while the Commanders are fifth-lowest (-62). This should lead to a pass-happy approach and sneaky Antonio Gibson value.
• The Commanders are the highest-rated APA for QBs (26.1 — LAC is second at 23.8) and WRs (45.0 — LAC is second at 37.7).
• If De’Von Achane returns, Raheem Mostert is still in the RB1 conversation against the Commanders, with Achane as a high-ceiling RB2 play. If Achane is out, Mostert is pushing Top 5 and Jeff Wilson is an RB3.

Broncos at Texans, 1 p.m.

• Noah Brown is struggling to return, but if he does, you can play him as a high-risk/reward WR3/4. Brown led numerous wideout categories during Weeks 8-10.
• The Texans are allowing the lowest YPC for opposing RBs (CAR, TB, CIN, ARI, JAX) at 3.13 — Dolphins second at 3.24. Javonte Williams is averaging 3.45 YPC over his past four games (KC, BUF, MIN, CLE).
• The Broncos have the sixth-stingiest pass defense and second-fewest WR FPPG, but allow the highest YPC to RBs (5.14), most Missed Tackles per Attempt (0.26) and highest RB APA (26.9).

Panthers at Buccaneers, 4 p.m.

• The Panthers have the lowest yards before contact at 0.46 (TEN is second lowest at 0.50 — DET is the best at 2.16), and they also have the sixth-highest Pressure% allowed at 40.1.
• The Buccaneers have allowed two running backs to top 78 rushing yards (D’Andre Swift and Jonathan Taylor). Taylor is the only one with a rushing touchdown against them (two).
• On the other hand, the Bucs have the highest Pass YPG (304.5), third-highest YPA (8.62), fifth-most QB FPPG (22.0), third-most WR FPPG (26.6), and highest YPRR (1.86).

Browns at Rams, 4 p.m.

• If Amari Cooper plays, he remains a risky WR3 whether it’s Dorian Thompson-Robinson or P.J. Walker. Elijah Moore would replace his WR3 value with a bit less upside and a tad more safety if Cooper is out, and Cedric Tillman would be a Hail Mary option.
• The Browns have the most Plays/G (72.7 — WAS is second at 71.0), but are ninth-lowest in TD/Drive% (15.8).
• They are also tough against the pass still with the lowest QB APA (12.4), but they’ve been more susceptible to the run, ranking 14th in FPPG (IND, SEA, ARI, BAL, PIT, DEN).
• Kyren Williams’ game log finishes: RB7, 4, 26, 3, 30, 2, 1. He’s also averaging 3.8 more yards per carry when the Rams are up by 7+ than when down 7 or more (second largest swing to Justice Hill’s 4.3).

49ers at Eagles, 4 p.m.

• The 49ers are allowing a league-high 43.6 Pressure% and yet, Brock Purdy has been sacked just once, and the Eagles are sixth lowest in Sack% per Dropback (4.8 — Chiefs leading at 12.0).
• If Dallas Goedert returns, he’d ding DeVonta Smith and his recent success — Smith has 19.1 TmTGT%, 15.5 TGT%, 27.3 TmAirYD% when Goedert is on the field compared to 35.5%, 26.7% and 53.4% without him — but… Goedert might be a dicey option since the 49ers have the second-lowest TE APA (7.4).
• Smith also sees a 24.4 TGT% when trailing by 7 or more versus just 13.7% when the Eagles are up 7+ points.

Chiefs at Packers, SNF

• If Aaron Jones doesn’t return, AJ Dillon is a volume-reliant RB2 with Jayden Reed getting a rush attempts boost. If Jones returns, he’s a risk/reward RB2 and Dillon a ho-hum RB3.
• Reed does more when trailing by a touchdown with a YPR 10.6 higher when down 7 or more versus up 7+ (12th largest while trailing).
• Rashee Rice has 15.9 TmTGT% but just 9.7 TmAirYD%, while Justin Watson has 12.5% (second for Chiefs WRs) and 26.1% (first).

Bengals at Jaguars, MNF

• The Bengals are allowing 13.7 YPR, a league high, with the Lions second at 13.0, while the Panthers (8.35) and Bears (8.81) are the two toughest.
• Joe Mixon saw a season-low 10 touches, eight rushes, 2.0 YPC and 7.0 FPs with Jake Browning last week.
• The Jaguars allow the second-fewest RB FPPG and just two RBs have run for a touchdown against them (Dameon Pierce Week 3, Zack Moss Week 6).

WEEK 13 FANTASY FOOTBALL SLEEPERS

These are sleepers (DuckTales and Darkwing Duck style — Woo-oo is worthy of the risk in most leagues, and Dangerous is if you need a Hail Mary). They will not mimic my rankings 100%. This is about chasing upside and often carries more risk — put simply, they are upside plays you might consider over a solid floor option.

Woo-oo Worthy

• QB: Sam Howell, WSH
• RB: Jaylen Warren, PIT; Jerome Ford, CLE
• WR: Adam Thielen, CAR; Josh Downs, IND
• TE: Juwan Johnson, NO

Let’s Get Dangerous

• QB: Jared Goff, DET
• RB: De’Von Achane, MIA (Jeff Wilson if Achane out); Tyler Allgeier, ATL
• WR: Jayden Reed, GB; George Pickens, PIT
• TE: Tyler Conklin, NYJ

FUN WITH RANKINGS!

While eating some Thanksgiving leftovers, I thought, “I should have taken the time to slowly reheat the turkey with some sauce or something to keep it moist/better.” Oh, and those mashed potatoes never come out great again. So, there we go for this week’s ranks…

Worst Reheated Foods

Honorable Mention: Pancakes and French toast

BEST: Anything Italian — pizza is the king, especially because you can eat it cold anyway.

WEEK 13 FANTASY FOOTBALL PROJECTIONS

🚨 HEADS UP 🚨 These can differ from my rankings, and my ranks are the order I’d start players outside of added context, such as, “Need highest upside, even if risky.” Also, based on 4-point TDs for QB, 6-point rest, and Half-PPR

Projections Download Link — Saturday

WEEK 13 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS

🚨 HEADS UP 🚨

• There is no perfect widget out there, sadly, still. I know many view this on your phone, but 1) use the rankings widget on a PC/laptop/etc. if possible or 2) open in your phone’s browser, especially for Android users, to get the scrolling to properly work.
• ECR = “Expert” Consensus Ranking (which isn’t updated by everyone consistently, so take with a grain of salt).
• Updated regularly, so check up to lineups locking.

(Photo by Todd Rosenberg/Getty Images)

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